They nerfed the March crate a second time. I didn't cover the first time on the forums because it wasn't nerfed to the point where voucher returns were lower than what you spent; in other words, it remained an infinite money glitch. The analysis was posted on Discord at the time.
That is not the case this time. The March Crate is no longer an infinite money glitch.
You now get 62.99% of the money you spend in vouchers on average. It should be noted that, because the Jackpots are a large portion of the overall voucher EV, the crate is volatile: in other words, you win big or you lose big.
If you consider the other rewards in addition to the voucher rewards:
- You get 8.3m worth of in-game stuff per purchased key.
- You get US$1.77 (estimate) of IRL value (Invaded rank, cosmetics). This is likely inflated because Custom Ranks have been made so common that you cannot possibly say that 7 days of Custom Rank is worth 30 USD, my standard estimate for such a reward.
If you instead consider the rewards you'd get if you spent all vouchers on more of this key (what previous analyses called "effective dollars spent"):
- You get 9m worth of in-game stuff per dollar originally spent. (This is the IRL rate defined by this crate).
- You get US$1.92 (estimate) of IRL value per dollar originally spent. Same disclaimer applies as above.
Is 9m/USD good? Should you buy this crate just for the ingame stuff? I can't say yet, and here's why. The one above-board measure of the IRL rate is the sale of Tier 1 sell wands, which, before the March crate, typically sold for 60m (14m/USD). However, it seems logical to think that the influx of vouchers from the March crate is going to drop this price. Will it go below 9m/USD and make this crate a good financial decision? Hard to say.
Full analysis:
That is not the case this time. The March Crate is no longer an infinite money glitch.
You now get 62.99% of the money you spend in vouchers on average. It should be noted that, because the Jackpots are a large portion of the overall voucher EV, the crate is volatile: in other words, you win big or you lose big.
If you consider the other rewards in addition to the voucher rewards:
- You get 8.3m worth of in-game stuff per purchased key.
- You get US$1.77 (estimate) of IRL value (Invaded rank, cosmetics). This is likely inflated because Custom Ranks have been made so common that you cannot possibly say that 7 days of Custom Rank is worth 30 USD, my standard estimate for such a reward.
If you instead consider the rewards you'd get if you spent all vouchers on more of this key (what previous analyses called "effective dollars spent"):
- You get 9m worth of in-game stuff per dollar originally spent. (This is the IRL rate defined by this crate).
- You get US$1.92 (estimate) of IRL value per dollar originally spent. Same disclaimer applies as above.
Is 9m/USD good? Should you buy this crate just for the ingame stuff? I can't say yet, and here's why. The one above-board measure of the IRL rate is the sale of Tier 1 sell wands, which, before the March crate, typically sold for 60m (14m/USD). However, it seems logical to think that the influx of vouchers from the March crate is going to drop this price. Will it go below 9m/USD and make this crate a good financial decision? Hard to say.
Full analysis: